Michele Kearney's Nuclear Wire

Major Energy and Environmental News and Commentary affecting the Nuclear Industry.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Time For Iran To 'Come Clean'

Time For Iran To 'Come Clean'



Last Friday at the start of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, President Obama -- flanked by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and with the support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- revealed the existence of a secret Iranian uranium enrichment facility near the seminary city of Qom, 60 miles south of Tehran. Obama reportedly decided to disclose the undeclared enrichment plant after Iran discovered that Western intelligence agencies had breached the secrecy surrounding the project. Last Monday, soon after Iran learned of the Western espionage, the regime delivered a "vague, terse" letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It informed the U.N. nuclear watchdog that a facility is under construction -- "one that had never been mentioned during years" of IAEA inspections at another nuclear facility in Natanz. While the Iranians argued that construction of the site is "completely legal," Obama offered harsh criticism of Iran's covert operation. "Iran's decision to build yet another nuclear facility without notifying the IAEA represents a direct challenge to the basic compact at the center of the non-proliferation regime," he said, adding, "It is time for Iran to act immediately to restore the confidence of the international community by fulfilling its international obligations."

IRAN 'IN A VERY BAD SPOT': While Iran's nuclear chief said the IAEA would be invited to visit the newly disclosed site, he did not specify a timeframe. Indeed, the Obama administration's first diplomatic encounter with Iran will take place this Thursday in Geneva, along with representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China. Yesterday, Iran test-fired three short range missiles that "appeared to be a show of military power." Nonetheless, President Obama offered tough rhetoric ahead of the talks. "Iran is on notice that when we meet with them on Oct. 1 they are going to have to come clean and they are going to have to make a choice" between giving up nuclear aspirations or increased isolation, the President said. Refusal to give ground will lead to "a path that is going to lead to confrontation," Obama said, adding, "When we find that diplomacy does not work, we will be in a much stronger position to, for example, apply sanctions that have bite." European diplomats sounded the alarm as well. Defense Secretary Robert Gates echoed Obama's stern warnings yesterday, saying that the secret facility puts the Iranian government "in a very bad spot," raising the prospect of "severe additional sanctions." While Gates said any military option would only "buy time," other senior officials said the Obama administration plans to te ll the Iranian delegation in Geneva that it must open the new site to international inspectors "within weeks." "If Iran repeats its line on Thursday that the nuclear file is closed and that there is nothing to discuss, then we will move straight to sanctions" an unnamed senior European diplomat on Sunday. "But I don't think the Iranians will be that stupid."

WILL MOSCOW GET TOUGH?: Another unnamed European diplomat noted that "the Russians feel Iran isn't taking their expressions of concern seriously and that is clearly irritating Moscow a lot." The diplomat cautioned that "it is still unclear how far Russia, or indeed China would go down the sanctions road." But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev "hardened Russia's stance on Iran's nuclear program on Friday after the US, Britain and France revealed that Tehran" has been constructing the secret facility. Medvedev -- who Obama briefed on Thursday about the uranium enrichment site -- said, "I don't consider sanctions the best way to achieve results on Iran...but all the same, if all possibilities to influence the situation are exhausted, then we can use international sanctions." "President Obama is slowly putting Iran in a box," said Juan Cole, Professor of History at the University of Michigan. Despite denials of any quid pro quo, a more cooperative Russian tone has followed Obama's cancellation of "the useless and expensive so-called missile shield program." While China responded to the revelations of Iran's second enrichment facility "more neutrally," many Western diplomats "have long believed that if Ru ssia throws its weight behind sanctions China will follow, wishing to avoid isolation in the UN Security Council."

THE RIGHT WING'S PREDICTABLE REACTION: Conservative senators reacted to the news of Iran's secret facility in predictable fashion, echoing much of the rhetoric coming out the the Bush administration over the last eight years: "regime change." "What we're trying to do here eventually is to get a regime change with a group of people in there that are more representative of the Iranian people," Sen. John Kyl (R-AZ) said yesterday. "At a certain point, talking is counterproductive rather than productive because time is not on our side," he said, adding later that "the carrot approach does not work with these people." Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) pushed regime change yesterday too. "We have to have strong sanctions, economic sanctions that can force either a regime change or the Ayatollahs to change their policy," he said. But it's clear now that the Bush administration's refusal to engage Iran (at least only until the waning days of Bush's tenure) and its "regime change" rhetoric served only to embolden Iran's hardliners within the country. And instead of accepting -- or even responding to -- Iran's offer of engagement in 2003, President Bush lumped the Islamic Republic into the now infamous "axis of evil." Eight years of the Bush administration's disengagement with Iran has only led to its nuclear program growing in size and scope. "The U.S. right wing accused Obama of a failure of nerve," Cole noted, "But in fact his move was shrewd and gutsy, since he predisposed Russia to increased cooperation." Jon Ward of The Washington Times writes, "Not only did the president look strong, he looked cunning."

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